Organization: GOAL
Country: Turkey
Closing date:
11 Mar 20161. Introduction
1.1 Background
Now approaching its sixth year, the conflict in Syria has created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis since World War II, and the impact on the civilian population has been catastrophic and shows no sign of improvement. The United Nations estimates that over 7.6 million people have been internally displaced, while a further 3.2 million have fled to neighbouring countries as refugees.[1] Unabated insecurity and the continued degradation of households’ ability to cope have deepened the humanitarian impact of the crisis, with over 13.5 million people estimated to be in need of assistance.[2]
Factors such as conflict-induced inflation, currency depreciation and continued conflict-driven displacement have critically served to reduce the purchasing power of affected populations; during displacement, the possibility of finding work or undertaking any kind of economic activity is significantly reduced, contributing to ever-higher levels of vulnerability.[3]
The 2016 Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO) estimated that 2.3 million people are in need of shelter assistance, of which 154,442 live in Idleb Governorate, and 5.3 million people were in need of Non-Food Items (NFIs), of which 584,780 live in Idleb Governorate. The HNO also found that while 900,000 people were targeted for a shelter response between January and August 2015 under the Whole of Syria multi-sectorial Joint Operational Plan (JOP), only 100,000 were reached, indicating a gap of 89% between those in need and those reached. Shelter programming continues to be one of the must under-resourced components of the Syrian humanitarian response - indeed, the HNO indicates that shelter is the sector with the biggest gap in response.
There have been no recent estimates of the number of buildings damaged, but in early 2013, this was estimated to be three million. The 2014 Multi Sector Needs Analysis found that 1,640,685 people were in need of shelter, so the increase to 2.3 million people by August 2015 (when the HNO survey was carried out) indicates a severe deterioration in the humanitarian response. Under the same JOP, 8.4 million people were targeted for NFI support but only 4.3 million were reached, leaving a gap of 49%.
1.2 GOAL Syria’s Programmes
GOAL launched a humanitarian program in Northern Syria in October 2012, and established a coordinating office in Antakya, Turkey with sub-offices in Harem and Darkosh, Syria. The objective of the GOAL Syria response is to provide emergency support to vulnerable families displaced or affected within Syria by the conflict, via the distribution of cash, vouchers, food kits, and non-food items, and support to water delivery, solid waste removal, and bread production systems, and the provision of direct Shelter support.
GOAL Syria’s programme is one of the largest responses in northern Syria with a budget of $151 million in 2015. The total Shelter and NFI programme budget is approximately $28 million and the programme serves approximately 490,000 beneficiaries annually.[4] GOAL’s Shelter activities are funded by UNHCR, DFID and OFDA, and in 2015 had a budget of approximately $2.3 million, reaching 30,000 beneficiaries. GOAL implements its Shelter programme through a range modalities in order to ensure an appropriate range of emergency and transitional support to conflict-affected beneficiaries, including household repairs, collective centre repairs, and rental support.
2. Scope of Work
2.1 Research Project Purpose
GOAL Syria is seeking an external consultant to design an impact evaluation of GOAL’s Shelter programming focusing on community Shelter coping strategies in GOAL’s Area of Operations (AoO), and the housing rental market, and to establish baseline values.
It is expected that this research will gather data on the context, and through clear and concise analysis, identify key indicators for rental market monitoring, gather baselines on these functions and indicators, and propose a framework for the appropriate monitoring of the above. Key considerations for a monitoring framework include:
· Has there been a noticeable impact on rental prices in the target area?
· Has GOAL’s rental programme reached people of a particular vulnerability profile? I.e. are we reaching the most vulnerable, or are we serving people who already have sufficient socio-economic status that they can afford to rent?
· To what extent has this project affected households’ use of negative coping strategies?
· To what extent do the rental and repair modalities support the recovery of markets and market systems?
The evaluation design should be based on evidence from the field and the contextual analysis. The baseline measurements and analysis would provide a starting point for carrying out the evaluation. The actual impact evaluation would be carried out approximately one year later by GOAL.
The research is expected to identify best practices and include recommendations based on the contextual analysis and secondary research to improve programmatic decision making.
2.2 Research Project Scope
The research project should be organized around the following key research questions:
Contextual Analysis:
· What are current community emergency shelter coping mechanisms?
o Emergency shelter definition: in the event of a new shock. First three months of displacement
· What are current transitional shelter coping mechanisms?
· Are these coping strategies exhausting HH capacities to cope?
· What shelter modalities displaced and host community households prefer?
· What are the key decision making factors for beneficiaries in each of the above scenarios?
Household Rental Market Analysis:
· This research should do an initial analysis of the rental market in Idleb, and propose a system, or systems, through which GOAL can monitor the demand elasticity of the rental market focused on the following questions.
· In GOAL’s AoO:
o What is the available rental stock, by size and quality?
o What is the average rent for different categories of size, quality and geographic location?
o What is the demand elasticity of the housing rental market?
o What are the biggest economic, social and other barriers to potential renters finding housing?
o Do IDPs face differential access to the rental market than the host population?
o How does gender of head of household affect access to rental market?
o Are their particular neighbourhoods in our AoO demonstrating more or less elasticity?
o What are the barriers for building owners to repairing housing stock on their own?
o What is the availability of damaged housing stock that GOAL could repair?
Evaluation Framework
· This research should establish an impact evaluation framework, including relevant tools and baseline measurements. The evaluation framework should consider:
o Appropriateness – how well do the shelter interventions respond to the context?
o Effectiveness – how well do the shelter interventions provide safe and sufficient housing without interfering with market dynamics?
o Impact – to what extent does this project positively or negatively impact local housing markets, household well-being, and protect against negative coping strategies?
o Sustainability – How well does this project protect households’ future ability to withstand shocks and internal movements, and the communities’ future ability to absorb new population movements?
o Efficiency – does this particular combination of modalities provide a cost-effective solution to housing displaced people?
2.4 Research Project Tasks
Refine the research objectives and primary research questions in consultation with GOAL Syria’s technical and management teams
Devise and test a methodology and evaluation tools to quantify and describe the extent of the project’s impact on various stakeholders, vulnerable households
Conduct secondary data collection and research, including using GOAL’s existing project monitoring data, to identify gaps in data coverage and knowledge
Collect primary data in Syria to establish and quantify the economic impact on beneficiaries, and to the extent possible, non-beneficiaries
Provide a draft report to programme management that will be incorporated into ongoing programme planning and evaluation, as well as recommendations for maximizing social impact
Incorporate GOAL feedback into draft report and prepare a final report. The Final report should both describe the results of the research, and provide actionable recommendations for improving the Shelter program
3. Methodology
A recommended methodology is outlined below, but the final methodology and tools to be used is to be determined by the evaluation team and will be contingent on the above tasks. GOAL recommends a mixed methods approach that can quantify impact and achievement against targets and indicators, and can also assess the appropriateness of the Shelter modalities, and the balance between them.
The evaluation team should consist of one to two Team Leaders. Access to Syria is likely to be impossible for an international consultant, so a Training-of-Trainers (ToT), or if possible, a Syrian counterpart is required for international applicants. Preference will be given to International Team Leaders who speak Arabic, and/or those with experience of the Syrian response.
3.1 Planning
Before arriving in country the evaluation team will do the following:
§ Review key internal and external documents
§ In partnership with the GOAL Syria MEAL Coordinator and Shelter team, refine and finalise the specific evaluation questions to be explored from the scope described above.
§ Propose to the MEAL Coordinator and the Shelter team the appropriate methodology to be developed for the Syrian context to evaluate community Shelter coping mechanisms, and the housing rental market.
§ Prepare an outline of the data collection methods that are required and the relevant survey templates and participatory data collection guides to be used for data collection.
§ Develop data entry software with quality checks in place with a minimum 10% double entry.
§ Develop a work plan consisting of key milestones required for data collection in order for logistics to be arranged by the MEAL Coordinator.
§ In consultation with the MEAL Coordinator and Shelter Coordinator, develop an analysis plan and report framework addressing key questions.
On arrival in country the evaluation team will:
§ Hold a short planning meeting with all members of the evaluation team including the MEAL Coordinator and Shelter team, to review and amend the questions as needed for the data collection tool.
§ Liaise with the MEAL Coordinator and MEAL Field Coordinator on the training and recruitment of the data collection staff and the use of mobile data collection for the proposed survey tools and qualitative guides, as primary data collection will be required for the study.
§ Hold a brief workshop with relevant stakeholders to communicate evaluation methods, sampling frame and methodology, sample size, enumeration plan, objectives, and outcomes. This will include a short description of the evaluation questions and methods proposed, and the implications the findings of the evaluation may have on GOAL Syria cash-based response programming.
§ Develop an analysis plan for the primary research.
Post-site visit
§ Data analysis, evaluation design, and report development
3.2 Primary Data Collection
Areas of primary data collection in Syria will span across the Shelter programme area in Idleb. The sampling frame should take into account continual Shelter interventions to date, and seek to identify areas where there are both unaddressed Shelter needs and the necessary security stability for these interventions. To the greatest extent possible, the evaluation should consider both beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries, examining any potential positive or negative spill over and unintended effects.
In the initial stages of data collection, the consultants should conduct random checks on the data and preliminary analyses to identify and problems and make swift corrections.
Consultants are requested to include a full timeframe (which GOAL will then input with regard to travel days) within their proposal document in the following format:
Activity
Number of days
Person responsible
Deliverables
e.g. Training of Trainers
4 days
Assistant Consultant
Training documentation, improved capacity of data collection staff to collect data
4. Ethical Considerations
The evaluation team will make clear to all participating stakeholders that they are under no obligation to participate in the evaluation study. All participants will be assured that there will be no negative consequences if they choose not to participate. The evaluation team will obtain informed consent from the participants. The research team will ensure prior permission is received for taking and use of visual still/ moving images for specific purposes, i.e., ‘for research report and presentations. The evaluation team will assure the participants’ anonymity and confidentiality and will ensure the visual data is protected and used for agreed purposes only. In particular, the evaluation team will employ robust data security measures to further ensure participants’ confidentiality and anonymity. The evaluation team is responsible for determining whether or not their proposed methodology would require Institutional Review Board (IRB) clearance, and will be responsible for clearing the process and training if such approval is required.
5. Presentation and Documentation of Findings and Recommendations
This consultancy will take place in early 2016, with the final approved report to be submitted no later than 30th April 2016.
The findings and the evaluation design must be shared with GOAL in the following formats:
§ Closing workshop in Antakya, Turkey with GOAL staff to present findings and evaluation design, and get feedback
o Agreed lessons learned and best practices that can be incorporated into Shelter programming and other emergency programs in Syria
o Agreed recommendations that will inform and improve GOAL’s Shelter strategy, with agreed action points and deadlines.
o Agreed indicators and data collection methods to continually assess the impact of the Shelter project
§ Draft a full evaluation design submitted to MEAL Coordinator and Shelter Coordinator for feedback and comments at the conclusion of field visit.
§ Draft a baseline report, including the full analysis of the findings, written according to the framework of the impact evaluation design, submitted to the MEAL Coordinator and Shelter Coordinator for feedback and comments within two weeks of the field visit.
§ Final Evaluation Design and Baseline Report- The report must be clear and concise. The appropriate sections will be discussed with the MEAL Coordinator and Shelter Coordinator. The final design and report should include definitions of all indicators and means of verification, and a full description of the data collection methodology.
Deliverable 1: Inception Report
Deliverable 2: Action Plan with deadlines
Deliverable 3: Initial Evaluation Framework
Deliverable 4: Key Analytical Findings
Deliverable 5: Final Report
6. Dissemination of Findings
Results and recommendations may be made available externally to interested stakeholders at the discretion of GOAL Syria’s senior management. The final report will be the property of GOAL Syria. The evaluation design will be used by GOAL Syria at a future date to evaluate the impact of the Shelter Program. The Consultant may be acknowledged as the designer of the evaluation upon the dissemination of the final impact evaluation report.
7. Assumptions and Requirements
§ Evaluators will have access to all documentation and can take part in relevant meetings and field trips within Turkey.
§ Evaluators will have access to key staff in the responding GOAL offices in Syria and Turkey and partner offices to obtain adequate information provided.
§ The evaluation team will have access to members of the affected population for conducting interviews.
§ Evaluators will take confidentiality and objectivity into consideration during the process.
§ Security concerns could impact the timing and the scope of the evaluation. It is important for the team to remain flexible. They must be open to making changes to the schedule and itinerary such as visiting alternate sites, conducting remote reviews and interviews, etc.
§ GOAL will provide all transport within Turkey, and if security permits for a Syrian national, transportation to Syria.
8. Consultant Profile
For the purposes of this evaluation, GOAL welcomes international, Syrian and Turkish firms and evaluators to apply. Preference will be given to evaluation teams that can access the field in northern Syria.
The profile of the lead consultant is:
§ Individuals or firms in academia, social research, or humanitarian evaluation (Ph.D. students or professionals) with a background in humanitarian aid, humanitarian shelter programming, Middle East studies, or research methods.
§ Master’s or doctoral degree either in development studies, civil engineering, or other related field
§ Extensive experience conducting project evaluations, ideally leading an evaluation team and experience of designing evaluation methodology / tools, data analysis etc.
§ Experience of working in humanitarian contexts and good understanding of humanitarian response work – both in programmes and operations
§ In-depth knowledge of quantitative and qualitative research methods
§ Experience with mobile data collection
§ Competent in using statistical packages for quantitative and qualitative analyses
§ Excellent presentation and writing skills
§ Capacity to work collaboratively with multiple stakeholders
§ Excellent analytical and writing in English and Arabic (preferred)
It is strongly preferred that the consultants who will be visiting Turkey will additionally have strong experience organizing and conducting Training of Trainers.
How to apply:Proposal Details and Submission
to apply: tenders-syria@sy.goal.ie
The deadline for submission of the technical and financial proposal and accompanying documents is 5 PM GMT Friday 12th March 2016. The application should include:
Technical proposal including detailed tasks, recommended methodology summary and proposed schedule, your relevant experience, how you meet the profile required and details of time required (maximum 8 pages)
Up to three relevant examples of past assessments or research completed in humanitarian Shelter programming, markets based assessment, or general evaluations of humanitarian programming in conflict environments or complex emergencies.
CVs of key personnel involved in undertaking the evaluation
Detailed, itemized cost proposal, including daily fee and any other associated costs (GOAL will provide accommodation)
Details of referees
Applications lacking any of the above requirements will not be considered.